Testing the Granger Noncausality Hypothesis in Stationary Nonlinear Models of Unknown Functional Form

نویسندگان

  • Anne Péguin-Feissolle
  • Birgit Strikholm
  • Timo Teräsvirta
چکیده

In this paper we propose a general method for testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form. These tests are based on a Taylor expansion of the nonlinear model around a given point in the sample space. We study the performance of our tests by a Monte Carlo experiment and compare these to the most widely used linear test. Our tests appear to be well-sized and have reasonably good power properties.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

ANOTHER LOOK AT SWEDISH BUSINESS CYCLES, 1861-1988 by

This paper considers nine long Swedish macroeconomic time series whose business cycle properties were discussed by Englund, Persson, and Svensson (1992) using frequency domain techniques. It is found by testing that all but two of the logarithmed and differenced series are nonlinear. The observed nonlinearity is characterized by STAR models. The statistical and dynamic properties of the estimat...

متن کامل

Testing Fiscal Reaction Function in Iran: An Application of Nonlinear Dickey-Fuller (NDF) Test

Abstract T his paper is to convince the usage of the nonlinear unit root tests when dealing with a nonlinear model. To do so, the stationary test for variables in a model titles “Fiscal Reaction Function in Iran” has been applied according to both the ordinary and the Nonlinear Dickey-Fuller (NDF) tests. Results show that while variables under investigation are stationary ...

متن کامل

1485 - 6441 Testing for Two - step Granger Noncausality in Trivariate VAR Models

Granger’s (1969) popular concept of causality, based on work by Weiner (1956), is typically defined in terms of predictability for one period ahead. Recently, Dufour and Renault (1998) generalized the concept to causality at a given horizon h, and causality up to horizon h, where h is a positive integer that can be infinite (1≤h<∞); see also Sims (1980), Hsiao (1982) and Lütkepohl (1993a) for r...

متن کامل

Granger-causal analysis of GARCH models: a Bayesian approach

A multivariate GARCH model is used to investigate Granger causality in the conditional variance of time series. Parametric restrictions for the hypothesis of noncausality in conditional variances between two groups of variables, when there are other variables in the system as well, are derived. These novel conditions are convenient for the analysis of potentially large systems of economic varia...

متن کامل

Causality in Nonlinear

The concepts of weak, strong and strict Granger causality are introduced for nonlinear time series models. 1-step ahead predictions are formed using the conditional expectation. The weak form is related to Granger's original deenition for linear predictors in that it is based on the forecast error variance, whereas the strong form concerns the conditional variance, and the strict form the condi...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:
  • Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation

دوره 42  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2013